2026 VA Disability Rates Increase - How Much Are Veterans Expected to Receive This April?

If you’re counting on Social Security, VA benefits, or military retirement to keep up with inflation, there’s some news you should know — and it might not be what you were hoping for. After a couple of years of hefty Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLAs), the tide is turning.

Inflation is cooling off, and with that, the anticipated increase in 2026 COLA is shaping up to be one of the lowest in recent years. Let’s break down what’s happening, what it means for your wallet, and whether a COLA increase is even guaranteed next year.

Adjustment

COLA is the annual boost that helps benefits keep up with inflation. It’s designed to stop your purchasing power from shrinking as the cost of essentials like groceries, rent, and gas go up.

Each year, the Social Security Administration (SSA) calculates this adjustment based on inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). But here’s the catch — they only use data from July through September to make the call.

That means while we’re seeing early estimates now, the official COLA figure for 2026 won’t be announced until October 2025. Still, early signs are pointing to a very modest increase.

Forecast

In 2023 and 2024, high inflation pushed COLAs up significantly, giving beneficiaries a much-needed cushion. But now that inflation is easing off, so are those increases. The current COLA for 2025 is just 2.5%, and early projections for 2026 show an even smaller bump — possibly just 2.3%.

That would be the lowest COLA in five years, according to groups like the Senior Citizens League and the Military Officers Association of America. While it’s not finalized yet, these forecasts are based on the first quarter of 2025 inflation reports from the U.S. Census Bureau — and they’re not looking overly optimistic.

Timeline

Here’s how the COLA process typically works:

Key Date	What Happens
July–September	SSA monitors CPI-W inflation trends
Mid-October	Official COLA percentage is announced
December 1	Adjustment takes effect
January 1	New payment amounts appear in checks

So while predictions are floating around now, the real number comes later in the year. And yes — it can change.

Possibility

Now here’s something people often overlook — there could be no COLA at all.

Sounds wild, right? But it’s happened before. If inflation stays flat or actually dips compared to the previous year’s third quarter, the law says no COLA gets issued. That’s exactly what happened in 2010, 2011, and 2016.

And while that’s rare, it’s not impossible. Inflation has cooled a lot. Plus, the SSA doesn’t guess — it strictly follows the CPI-W data. If the math doesn’t support an increase, they won’t make one.

Wildcards

Of course, nothing is set in stone. One big wildcard? Tariffs.

The U.S. government has rolled out broad tariffs this year, which could eventually push prices up across many sectors. If that happens, inflation might rebound later in 2025 — and with it, a larger COLA increase. But that’s kind of a double-edged sword. Higher inflation means higher prices for everyone, which eats into those benefits pretty fast.

So, while it might sound good in theory, it’s not exactly a win-win scenario.

With early COLA predictions hovering around 2.3% for 2026, beneficiaries may need to brace for smaller increases — or possibly none at all. While these figures are just estimates based on early data, they reflect a broader trend: falling inflation is cooling the pace of benefit boosts.

Keep an eye on the CPI-W reports later this year, and mark October on your calendar — that’s when we’ll get the final answer. Until then, budgeting wisely and planning ahead can help cushion whatever comes next.